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Ignoring the premise of probability questionMy friend suggested a question in geometric probability: What is the probability of a random line A's end point, to not meet another random line B's end point? (in a space where only these two lines exist.) The answer I suggested: The probability of point A falling exactly on another point B in space is low. (one chance in infinity). Therefore the probability of them not meeting is high (infinity minus one chance in infinity) I could be wrong about the statistics, but I'll try to get to the actual logical problem: Friends's answer was: That is a logical error based on cognitive bias. Point B has no more significance than any other point in space. Therefore the probability of the end point A, meeting exactly the endpoint B, is equal to end point A falling on any other random point in the space. It seems to me that this is ignoring the basic premise of the question. The question wouldn't even exist if there wasn't a specific point B to talk about! that's the whole point of the question to be asked in the first place. Is there any merit to her claim? Is there a logical fallacy in her answer and if so what is it? |
| asked on Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021 10:02:20 AM by Jay | |
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Claims are constantly being made, many of which are confusing, ambiguous, too general to be of value, exaggerated, unfalsifiable, and suggest a dichotomy when no such dichotomy exists. Good critical thinking requires a thorough understanding of the claim before attempting to determine its veracity. Good communication requires the ability to make clear, precise, explicit claims, or “strong” claims. The rules of reason in this book provide the framework for obtaining this understanding and ability.
This book / online course is about the the eleven rules of reason for making and evaluating claims. Each covered in detail in the book.
