Question

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Jason Mathias

Is there a correlation causation fallacy?

For example: 

Republicans blaming Biden for high gas prices because of correlation not causation. They conflate the two and assume correlation is causation. The correlation being gas prices went up during Biden's presidency. Therefore, Biden must have caused the higher prices and so he must be to blamed for gas prices being high.

 

Ok, that was the gist of it. Now I will do a rant about it here because according to economists and the oil market experts it was not because of Biden and that the forces that led to higher gas prices mostly happened under Trumps administration. For example the experts say the biggest reason is due to supply and demand. Demand for oil suddenly dropped off a cliff due to the Covid-19 pandemic shutdowns, shutdowns that happened under Trump. The demand dropped because no one could fly, drive to work or go out to eat and people social distancing at home. This demand dropped when supply was really high and so private oil companies (not Biden) stopped production and some production companies even went out of business. Remember when oil futures traded in the markets at less than -0$. And we all know that when supply is high and demand is low prices drop. So, prices were so low during April of 2020 the gas price republicans cherry pick as the good times because the times and economy were actually so bad, not good. Gas prices started rising after April of 2020 and that uptrend was handed to Biden. So, then, Biden came in, the vaccines came out, the lockdowns ended and demand came roaring back when supply was now low. Now production has been ramping back up to meet demand. If you look at the U.S gas production charts it shows we are producing as much oil now as we were in 2018 and it has been rising under Biden. But they blame Biden for wiping out supply when the data does not reflect this. They use the Keystone Pipeline as a reason why and how Biden wiped out supply and caused higher gas prices. But, the XL Keystone Pipeline was not going to be finished until 2023 so the current prices cant be because of that. And it was planned to be mostly shipped over seas and was only going to pump 1% of the worlds oil supply, or 4% of the U.S oil supply which cant affect prices much at all. So then they say the U.S has the biggest underground supply therefore I am wrong. But, supply in economics does not mean untapped resources, it means resources that have already been barreled and are in the market ready to be sold. Also, if you look at studies on inflation they all say the lag time between economic policy and inflation is 1 to 2 years. So, this would suggest the inflation happened under Trump, not Biden as the large U.S economy is like the titanic, there is a lag time between turning the wheel and the ship turning. (sudden black swan natural disasters like pandemics and war is not economic policy so its effect is much quicker) And now gas prices are rising even more due to the Russia Ukraine war. They blame Biden for that too with the same correlation causation fallacy because Biden is president when the invasion happened. But, it was Putin who invaded and Biden had nothing to do with that. They claim its because Biden is weak and Trump was strong. But, it was Trump who withheld military aid and weapons to Ukraine that Ukraine needed to defend itself against Russia, Trump did this to extort the new democratically elected Ukraine president in exchange for making up lies about Biden to benefit Trump in the election. He got impeached for it, but I guess people have amnesia? Trump doing this undermined the new Ukraine president, weakened Ukraine and made it more vulnerable to attack. And Trump says nice things about Putin like he is a genius and the Republicans are favoring Putin over Biden in polls and so when half of the American elites i.e the Republican party favor Putin over Biden and Ukraine isn't that a good reason for Putin to invade? Some people might say Trump is not responsible for the Pandemic so high gas prices aren't his fault either. But, it was the Trump administration with its budget cut policies cut funding to the pandemic prevention teams. And that team had our experts in China, but they were removed due to the budget cuts. How likely is it that if we had our experts in China with the purpose of detecting and preventing pandemics that a we may have been able to stop it before it left and at least had information about what was happening? Also, it was Ronald Regan a Republican that deregulated the oil industry which finally gave the oil industry the choice to raise prices or not. Before that time oil and gas prices were regulated by the U.S gov i.e president and thats also why gas prices are high now too because it allows for oil companies to regain their profits they lost in 2020 under the Trump administration. 

This fallacy seems to be working very well as polls show the majority of Americans now blame Biden for high gas prices and believe that Trump can make them lower again since they correlate low prices with Trumps last year in office. But, that was because of the Pandemic destroying the economy. Oil companies lowered supply by dropping production and now they are recouping their lost profits. None of this has to do with Biden. 

I dont usually play the blame and praise game like this. I am just using data and evidence to balance out all the unfounded blame at Biden. I feel the American people are going to elect the very thing that caused all of this by blaming all of this on the guy who didn't cause it and its very confusing for me to understand. 

Also, what is the psychology behind all of this? Because when I show the data and evidence to those who post FB memes blaming Biden, they then viscously attack me for it. Like, VERY viscously! Like they are looking for someone to blame that makes them feel good. But, there is also another factor that causes inflation and that is peoples belief that inflation is and will happen. So, if anything all of these people blaming Biden are actually contributing to the inflation just by blaming Biden, democrats and liberals for it. 

 

asked on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 12:06:08 PM by Jason Mathias

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Comments

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Jason Mathias writes:

I just discovered the questionable cause fallacy. I think that probably fits the fallacy I am looking for here. 

posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 01:39:41 PM
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Bo Bennett, PhD writes:
[To Jason Mathias ]

Good. Saves us from reading the book you posted :)

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 03:25:23 PM
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Jason Mathias writes:

[To Bo Bennett, PhD]

The book part doesn't have to do with the fallacy question. Its just me giving a bunch of economic reasons why its not true that high gas prices are all Biden's fault. Every post for at least 11 months straight on my FB page is about how gas prices are Biden's fault with FJB LGB hashtags and gas myths/misinformation. Instead of writing a post there and being burned at the stake and killed by the pitchforks, I figured I would write it here where people are not ideological, not political and who are intelligent and intellectually honest and mean to help not harm. 

Do you know much about the psychology of scapegoating and tribalism like this? Its getting really bad. 

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 03:41:14 PM
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Bo Bennett, PhD writes:

[To Jason Mathias ]

 I figured I would write it here where people are not ideological, not political and who are intelligent and intellectually honest and mean to help not harm. 

I appreciate your confidence in our members, but I should remind you that we have at least one member who still insists that Trump won the 2020 election. Tribalism is extremely powerful for those who are tribalistic and easily manipulated, no matter how bright and otherwise logical and reasonable.

I do know quite a lot about tribalism as it was a major section in the social psychology class I used to teach.

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 03:56:24 PM
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Jason Mathias writes:

[To Bo Bennett, PhD]

Well I probably have 4,500 people on my FB page that believe Trump won the 2020 election so one here is actually very good in my opinion. 

"Tribalism is extremely powerful for those who are tribalistic and easily manipulated, no matter how bright and otherwise logical and reasonable." I want to know more about this, I am very interested to get to the bottom of understanding this phenomena. What makes someone tribalistic and easily manipulated? Is it biases, is it genetics, is it emotion? I see the manipulation, but its projected back onto me as if I am the one who is misinformed and gullible. I cant get around the relativity of this dilemma, the gaslighting and projection has me almost questioning my own judgment at times. Of course this is done with logical fallacies like the ad-hominem, poisoning the well, and genetic fallacies. 

 

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 04:24:00 PM
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Bo Bennett, PhD writes:
[To Jason Mathias ]

Here is a great video on Tribalism by a buddy of mine that will serve as a great intro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y-b7f6CK2M

 

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 05:08:57 PM
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Jason Mathias writes:
[To Bo Bennett, PhD]

Thank you so much, this series is awesome! Exactly what I was looking for!

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 10:17:49 PM
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TrappedPrior (RotE) writes:
[To Jason Mathias ]

Do you know much about the psychology of scapegoating and tribalism like this? Its getting really bad. 
 

Based on my amateur observations, it seems like many Americans treat politics like a sports game, where you pick a "team" and stick with them, regardless of what empirical evidence or critical reasoning says. To entertain an alternative view, or to -  gasp  - acknowledge it is reasonable or even correct - would be to  betray  your team, and may be met with disapproval/shaming/ostracism from your teammates. Since political affiliation is becoming as much of an identity as race, gender, sexuality and others, it feels painful to suffer this shunning - which reinforces the "team sport" attitude as no one wants to go against what the group thinks.

It's the same in the UK, actually - over here we're still suffering the fallout of the EU Membership Referendum in 2016 - Remain and Leave supporters both adopt copious amounts of groupthink in order to appear 'loyal' to their cause, crafting meticulous narratives about the motives of people on the other side: Remainers are out-of-touch, snobbish elites who don't understand the workers, and Brexiters are insular, bigoted nativists who can't 'get with the times' as it were.

It's a little sad actually. Truth isn't partial to one 'side' or the other. But when you point this out, you're likely to get accused of "bothsidesism" (as if this is somehow problematic) when the real problem is rampant "twosidesism" which splits every issue down the middle and destroys the nuance that is fundamental to the way the world works.

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 04:13:55 PM
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Jason Mathias writes:
[To Rationalissimus of the Elenchus]

Thank you for that. But, do those who are on a team because they don't want to be ostracized actually believe the misinformation they promote? It sure seems like they are true believers. Is truth to them determined by who is for and against the information, or how the information helps or harms their political and personal causes? Even if those causes might be shooting themselves in the feet? How can that epistemology make sense to a logical and intelligent person? I know some of these people are intelligent.... I think? 

[ login to reply ] posted on Wednesday, Mar 09, 2022 04:32:16 PM
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TrappedPrior (RotE) writes:
[To Jason Mathias ]

But, do those who are on a team because they don't want to be ostracized actually believe the misinformation they promote? 

I can't say for  sure . It's probably the case that some really believe it (true believers) and others are simply trying to fit in (fakers).

Is truth to them determined by who is for and against the information, or how the information helps or harms their political and personal causes?

Both - if the person for the information is a political enemy, then they're more likely to reject it. The opposite in the case of someone who is a political ally. And because of  confirmation bias , they evaluate information based on whether it helps or hurts their beliefs and goals.

How can that epistemology make sense to a logical and intelligent person?

Emotions play a huge role in what we think and do, even for "rational" and "intelligent" people. The strong feeling that you are right - even if you aren't - will automatically justify this kind of epistemology.

 

[ login to reply ] posted on Thursday, Mar 10, 2022 04:33:11 AM

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