Question

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Epsodom

Are certain things *really* exceptions?

Good Evening,

I have found what seem to be issues regarding exceptions on the websites definitions of fallacies, for example:

(Good Example [where everything is AOK], Appeal to Popularity)

Exception: When the claim being made is about the popularity or some related attribute that is a direct result of its popularity.

People seem to love the movie, The Shawshank Redemption.  In fact, it is currently ranked #1 at IMDB.com, based on viewer ratings.

The reason I find this good is that the above is arguing that something is popular, rather than that because something is popular, someone should do it/buy it/play it/etc.

(Bad Example [where it is a biased justification in use of the fallacy], Appeal to Common Belief)

Exception: Sometimes there are good reasons to think that the common belief is held by people who do have good evidence for believing.  For example, if virtually all of earth scientists accept that the universe is approximately 13.7 billion years old, it is wise to believe them because they will be able to present objective and empirical evidence as to why they believe.

Yes, I know that there are people who have different perspectives on how old the universe is (or how it was made), no matter how ridiculous; however, the above statement still has nothing that actually separates it from the fallacy known as Appeal to Common Belief, as it is still an argument that someone should believe something based on how common a belief or practice is, no matter what people group. For example, if a vast majority of scientists believe aliens exist somewhere in the universe, does that mean you should believe that aliens exist somewhere in the universe? I think not! Scientists are still a group of people, common idea or not, even estimates of the age of the universe are changing all the time, and people are still exploring space with telescopes because we do not yet have the technology to get there in person.

I bet I could find more examples like this, though these were the first two that came to mind.

asked on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 12:29:31 AM by Epsodom

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Answers

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TrappedPrior (RotE)
5

People seem to love the movie, The Shawshank Redemption.  In fact, it is currently ranked #1 at IMDB.com, based on viewer ratings.

This is a positive claim about the popularity of X, rather than a normative inference using X's popularity as a justification. The fallacy could be made a bit more clear though.

For example, if virtually all of earth scientists accept that the universe is approximately 13.7 billion years old, it is wise to believe them because they will be able to present objective and empirical evidence as to why they believe.

That last bit is important. We're trusting them not in-and-of themselves, but what they are very likely to bring to the table. A scientist would have studied existing literature - they might have even contributed to some of it - so they'd be in a position to know what they're talking about. Of course, the usual critical thinking skills still apply.

answered on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 03:59:50 AM by TrappedPrior (RotE)

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Dr. Richard writes:

"That last bit is important." It is not only important, it is critical. We cannot have a rule by experts, as all too many examples provide. It is what the scientist brings to the table that is critically important otherwise youi have abnegated your mind to theirs. 

posted on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 11:04:37 AM
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Epsodom writes:

Of course, the usual critical thinking skills still apply. 

I would put this statement in bold, as saying that you can't trust other other common beliefs but then use the excuse that because a lot of scientists agree it is true is special pleading for appeal to common belief.

P.S.

Is there a study that gives names for systems of fallacies used like the above?

posted on Tuesday, Feb 22, 2022 01:38:58 AM
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Bo Bennett, PhD
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the above statement still has nothing that actually separates it from the fallacy known as Appeal to Common Belief

It does, actually. Scientific consensus is not the same as common belief . First, it is important to realize there are exceptions to virtually all informal fallacies (if not all). There is a point where reason is sacrificed for a strict logical interpretation—perhaps best articulated by "in principle but not in practice." The example I used was perhaps not the best, but not because it was fallacious but because it is too easy to find and understand strong evidence for the "old earth," where a reliance on expertise isn't necessary. But consider the thousands or perhaps millions of beliefs we reasonably hold based on a general trust of the scientific process. When our doctor gives us medicine, it isn't unreasonable to accept the belief that the medicine will work. When we fly on a plane, it isn't unreasonable to accept the belief that the plane is safe and won't crash. And when there are roughly 3% of scientists out there arguing that the earth is less than 10,000 years old, it isn't unreasonable to accept the fact that they are wrong based on the 97% who say they are dead wrong—without fully understanding all of the evidence.

For example, if a vast majority of scientists believe aliens exist somewhere in the universe...

Again, you are confusing common belief with findings of the scientific method. If these scientists hold personal, philosophical views it would be fallacious and fall under this fallacy to accept those views for that reason. It is important to differentiate between a scientist's personal view and a scientist communicating the results of scientific study. Reason is required here as well. Some issues are, for all practical purposes, "settled" (despite the fact that all scientific findings are provisional) and some are inconclusive (this is when there is no strong consensus).

even estimates of the age of the universe are changing all the time,

Be careful here you don't slip into the "science is constantly wrong therefore ignore it" camp. Scientific findings are constantly bringing us closer to the "truth" but rarely reverse course. For example, yes, estimates of the age of the earth are changing, but in no way are they close to 6000 years. They are changing within a few percentage points from the 4.5 billion years.

Bottom line: A scientific consensus is shorthand for scientific evidence. Accepting a scientific consensus is trusting the science more than you trust your own ability to accurately evaluate the preponderance of evidence on a given topic and come to an unbiased, conclusion. There is nothing unreasonable about this.

answered on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 06:20:33 AM by Bo Bennett, PhD

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Epsodom writes:

Thank you for your response!

Here are some things I would like to ask though, based on your answer:

It does, actually. Scientific consensus  is not the same as common belief .

Is it still a scientific consensus if it is mostly influenced by personal biases, or based directly off of common belief? (In any instance)

Be careful here you don't slip into the "science is constantly wrong therefore ignore it" camp. Scientific findings are constantly bringing us closer to the "truth" but rarely reverse course.

I would agree that there are aspects of scientific research that are true, and that are purely based on what is observable, it is the not-so-observable things I may challenge and entertain alternatives from time to time. For example, if there was a God-Entity perhaps, might we be wrong in saying that the world is billions of years old? I would find this as possible, and still others would say it is likely not, though such things I find are still based off of bias rather than what is observable. (e.g. Some methods used in the scientific field may use hedging or ad hoc to try and keep specific bias in the works, or we can/have come to faulty conclusions based off of current misunderstandings of science that could change in the future with new discoveries, no matter how small or drastic)

A scientific consensus is shorthand for scientific evidence. Accepting a scientific consensus is trusting the science more than you trust your own ability to accurately evaluate the preponderance of evidence on a given topic and come to an unbiased, conclusion. There is nothing unreasonable about this.

I agree, to an extent, that accepting scientific consensus is as long as it is just that, a purely scientific consensus. For example, if the majority of scientists where Hindus, would it be wise to trust them that many, many gods just float around and produce results that we can observe scientifically? Even if they found a way to "prove" that aspects of nature may belong to different deities, we cannot observe the Hindu gods, we are not able to observe billions of years (our lives being so short), and much more that I find would be or are rooted in preconceived biases.

Again, I would like to thank you for your response, and I would but ask if you would consider what I have written in this response.

posted on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 09:25:18 AM
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Bo Bennett, PhD writes:
[To Epsodom]

Is it still a scientific consensus if it is mostly influenced by personal biases, or based directly off of common belief? (In any instance)

To suggest that a consensus is "mostly influenced by personal biases, or based directly off of common belief" is to suggest the failing of the scientific process itself. To suggest that a specific opinion of a scientist is "mostly influenced by personal biases, or based directly off of common belief" is reasonable, as we know it happens. However, an entire consensus is somewhat conspiratorial.

 it is the not-so-observable things I may challenge and entertain alternatives from time to time.

Observation is only one way to a scientific conclusion. There are many more paths that are just as definitive (e.g., mathematical proofs). The problem is, the layman cannot appreciate these methods and are easily manipulated to reject science.

if there was a God-Entity perhaps...

Science uses methodological naturalism. If there were magic (in the form of a god's powers or any other kind) all bets about everything are off. Until such magic is demonstrated, we assume methodological naturalism.

if the majority of scientists where Hindus, would it be wise to trust them that many, many gods just float around 

Please see my previous answer. We don't care about a scientist's philosophical musings. If the belief was not a result of the scientific process, it doesn't count as a consensus.

[ login to reply ] posted on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 09:52:13 AM
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Epsodom writes:

[To Bo Bennett, PhD]

To suggest that a consensus is "mostly influenced by personal biases, or based directly off of common belief" is to suggest the failing of the scientific process itself.

How so? Consider Gödel's incompleteness theorems, don't we all have preconceived biases in order to have a complete or proper understanding of the world, scientific or not? Couldn't scientific logic merely be a means of confirming our biases, in how they fit with reality?

To suggest that a specific opinion of a scientist is "mostly influenced by personal biases, or based directly off of common belief" is reasonable, as we know it happens. However, an entire consensus is somewhat conspiratorial. 

How about when all the scientists in a room have one similar bias that has influence on an experiment/journal/fill-in-the-blank, would it be wrong to assume that because they all had a similar bias, that it would have effected how they interpreted the data? Even bringing it back to the purely Hindu scientists, if they conducted research on nature, would it be unlike them to have Hindu ideas hinted within, no matter how subtle?

Observation is only one way to a scientific conclusion. There are many more paths that are just as definitive (e.g., mathematical proofs).

Indeed, but with what bias, what preconceived beliefs? It is like choosing a different lens to view something.

The problem is, the layman cannot appreciate these methods and are easily manipulated to reject science. 

How did you come to the conclusion that the layman cannot appreciate different methods? I appreciate different kinds of ways to get an answer as long as those ways are sound.

Science uses methodological naturalism.

In most instances, yes; though, how would you explain how we came into existence when the laws of physics have not had any observable change? Surely if the laws have not changed (Maybe they have, but I am not aware of any observation that shows that they did), wouldn't it be logical to conclude that if the second law of thermodynamics was complete in the beginning, that their had to be a supernatural force that made everything, inseparably tying the natural to the supernatural?

If there were magic (in the form of a god's powers or any other kind) all bets about everything are off. Until such magic is demonstrated, we assume methodological naturalism. 

Does power and cause need to be shown in the moment to know that it happened? What would convince a naturalist/atheist/nihilist that something was magical? From my point of view, even the most obviously supernatural thing they would just turn away as "a trick".

We don't care about a scientist's philosophical musings. If the belief was not a result of the scientific process, it doesn't count as a consensus. 

How about if their philosophical musings conflict with some other group of scientists elsewhere, what then?

[ login to reply ] posted on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 02:14:14 PM
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Bo Bennett, PhD writes:
[To Epsodom]

Couldn't scientific logic merely be a means of confirming our biases, in how they fit with reality? 

No. If we do a test and find that one is 93 times more likely to die without a vaccine, there is no bias that can make this not true.

How about when all the scientists in a room have one similar bias...

You are referring to one study, not a global consensus. Yes, a handful of researchers from the same institution can allow a bias to slip into research. But it will be discovered in replication.

Indeed, but with what bias, what preconceived beliefs? It is like choosing a different lens to view something. 

I don't even know what you are asking here. It doesn't seem to follow from my answer.

In most instances, yes; 

No, in ALL instances science uses methodological naturalism. Otherwise, it isn't science.

What would convince a naturalist/atheist/nihilist that something was magical?

You would need to ask the specific naturalist/atheist/nihilist.

How about if their philosophical musings conflict with some other group of scientists elsewhere, what then? 

I already stated that philosophical musings are outside of scientific findings and irrelevant. So conflicting philosophical musings is also irrelevant.

[ login to reply ] posted on Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022 02:43:26 PM