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Basically, this "wrapper fallacy" is when someone picks a hypothesis that, despite appearing simple, is more complicated than the problem it corresponds to. In other words, it is a deceptively simple hypothesis. By the conjunction effect, the more complex a hypothesis, the less probable it is and the more evidence that is required in its favour. This applies to "wrapper" hypotheses which entail many more assumptions than they might suggest at first glance. Favouring such a hypothesis over others, without the requisite evidence, would fit nicely with the least plausible hypothesis fallacy. |
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| answered on Friday, Sep 02, 2022 07:37:01 AM by TrappedPrior (RotE) | ||||
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