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Alex Hosking

Rufusing to acnowledge real human behaviour.

It might be great if we could just set a speed limit and expect it to work rather than basing speed limits on the speed most people drive at, but we know it doesn't. To me I'd conclude that there's no point setting them based on political pressure from locals etc.
To some people, that doesn't seem to matter. I argue that if you set them incorrectly it does very little to reduce speed, it does however massively increase non-compliance, I'll give examples of roads with as much as 97% non-compliance and I give an explanation based on behavioural phycology. My argument also is that setting a law so universally disregarded has a detrimental effect not just on the speed limits but also the law in general.
To some people it  just doesn't seem to matter how high the non-compliance or average speed was because they were breaking the law, all my attempts at explaining what exacerbates non-compliance can be dismissed as apologetics for law breaking, therefore my argument is invalid.
No example I could give made any difference because I couldn't give an example of a physical force making people speed, they just shouldn't be speeding and the law is the law.

I know that's circular reasoning, that's not the fallacy I'm after, I'm not sure if this is really a fallacy per se, more it's a way of thinking where by it doesn't really seem to matter what really happens in reality, all that matters is that it would work if everyone just obeyed the law that was set, therefore we should ignore the non-compliance and set the rules that way anyway.

Another example could be communism, sounds great on paper, in reality, real world human behaviour seems to stop it from working. Or even prohibition on drug, when's that going to start working? It would work if people just stopped using drugs when you banned them, but we know it doesn't. A good example also would be alcohol prohibition in the US, that would have worked if banning it meant people wouldn't seek a drink any-more.
Even to an extent FPtP voting, I've known someone dismiss my point about how in incentivizes and rewards  people for voting dishonestly because "Well, people should just vote honestly".

It could be summarised with I don't care how real world behaviour really is, I just know what it should be and I will set the rules based on that. Not really a fallacy, but is there a word for that?

asked on Wednesday, Aug 04, 2021 06:02:53 PM by Alex Hosking

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Shawn writes:

You write: "I argue that if you set them incorrectly it does very little to reduce speed, it does however massively increase non-compliance."

That is as an argument you are putting forward to strengthen your point, but where is the data? How do you know that speed limits do very little to reduce speed? As for myself, I reduce or increase my speed based on the limit posted, and I observe that most people do likewise. 

posted on Friday, Aug 06, 2021 09:10:51 AM
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Alex Hosking writes:

[To Shawn]

It's probably that where you drive they have set most speed limits to match the road they're on?
It's the standard of the road and the conditions at the time that overwhelmingly dictate traffic speeds.
I'm not saying speed limits make no difference to speed, for what difference they do make they seem to be most effective when they match the road they're on, especially when limits change inline with a change to the road's character, rather than in some arbitrary location several hundred yards before the start of a built up area.

It would be a strange statement to make if it wasn't true, I recommend the study Effects of Raising and Lowering Speed Limits, Which states the following "lowering posted speed limits by as much as 20mph, or raising speed limits by as much as 15mph had little effect on motorists' speed. The majority of motorists did not drive 5mph above the posted speed limits when speed limits were raised, nor did they reduce their speed by 5 or 10mph when speed limits are lowered."

I've also seen data from roads near me from hidden radar detection measuring (free flow) traffic speeds, that seem to back up this study's claims.
Quite a few roads with 40mph speed limits had lower average speeds than other roads near to them that had 30mph speed limits, even one road with a 50mph speed limit had an average speed lower than one with a 30mph speed limit. That 30 limit road was just a higher standard than the 50 limit road.
One quite generous 40 limit that has survived had 97% compliance with the speed limit, which is the opposite of the 20 limit road with 97% non-compliance. That's the level your dealing with.

Some roads have even been know to have speeds increase after the limit has been lowered. It surprised me as well.

[ login to reply ] posted on Saturday, Aug 07, 2021 07:21:44 AM
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John Best writes:

The way I read this, it appears "R(e)fusing to ac(k)nowledge real human behavio(u)r"  is being put forward as a possible fallacy.   The speed limit and communism examples may be presented as supportive.   

I suggest re-writing the question/observation/proposal, as it is not entirely clear, and potentially very broad.  

To further muddy the water, and potentially go off point, the relatively recent field of behavioral economics may be what you are hinting at here.    I am not prepared to argue this point, but I will postulate that many human behaviors are not understood to the level necessary to apply the tools of rhetorical fallacy.  In other words, we are beginning to 'know ourselves' to an extent that we might recognize the 'rational consumer' models are largely a relic. 

posted on Sunday, Aug 08, 2021 11:15:54 AM
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Alex Hosking writes:

[To John Best]

Like I said, I wasn't sure if it counted as a fallacy, maybe it could be called a mindset a form of phycological denialism, but is there a name for it?

[ login to reply ] posted on Sunday, Aug 08, 2021 07:40:01 PM

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Answers

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Bo Bennett, PhD
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This might be best described by in principle but not in practice . It is a multidisciplinary concept that begins with a logical/reasonable rule, tests it in the real world, and fails. As you alluded to, this is often due to the unpredictable complexity of human behavior. To say that one cares more about the rule than the outcome could have to do with one's moral positioning. For example, a virtue ethicist might suggest that we can never kill and innocent person to save thousands. In principle, not killing innocent people is a good idea, but in practice it might not always deliver the best possible outcome.

Overall, I don't see any fallacy; just different worldviews.

answered on Thursday, Aug 05, 2021 07:16:30 AM by Bo Bennett, PhD

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Alex Hosking writes:

Maybe I've asked on the wrong website, I'm thinking it could more be described as a mindset rather than fallacy.
I thought of another example today, that being vegans who for some reason have a problem with people who rescue battery chickens and keep them almost like pets because they eat the hens' eggs.
Vegans think they should be feeding their eggs back to the hens.
Of course if you point out to them that imposed that rule only a fraction of the number of hens would be recued and get to live out their life as pets in someone's back yard, their answer to this seems to be "I don't care it's cruel to take their eggs".

posted on Monday, Aug 09, 2021 05:01:26 PM
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Bo Bennett, PhD writes:
[To Alex Hosking]

Same idea... vegans tend to lean more towards virtue ethics, where killing/relocating some animals to build a children's hospital where woodlands was is not acceptable. It is not a fallacy, just a different ethical worldview.

[ login to reply ] posted on Tuesday, Aug 10, 2021 08:16:42 AM
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Jason Mathias
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It seems like this blindspot could be the result of a few different cognitive biases at play, and the Sunk Cost Fallacy keeps it going. If this is done to keep revenue streaming in then it would be a whole different set of cognitive biases at play.

answered on Wednesday, Aug 04, 2021 07:43:31 PM by Jason Mathias

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Dr. Richard
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I don't see a logical issue here as much as a policy issue. In my experience, speed limits are set at what 80% of the drivers actually drive. There are various explanations, but the fact so many people drive at that speed indicates the speed is generally safe and lessens political influence.

answered on Thursday, Aug 05, 2021 06:50:47 AM by Dr. Richard

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